B.C. Election 2026: Surrey Becomes the Battleground as 65 Percent of Voters Say They Want Change

B.C. election news: Four days out from voting day, Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson and NDP leader David Eby are staking their campaigns on Surrey, the vote-rich suburb where ten seats could decide who runs British Columbia after the B.C. Election 2026.

By Maplestime News Desk | Vancouver, British Columbia | October 21, 2026

Sources: CBC | The Bull Post | Apna News | Last updated: October 21, 2026

Key Takeaways

• British Columbians vote Saturday, Oct. 24, in the B.C. Election 2026. Advance voting ends tonight at 8 p.m.
• Angus Reid (Oct. 15 to 19, n=795) puts the Conservatives at 46 per cent and the NDP at 43. Innovative Research Group has it at 43-38 with the Greens at 12.
• 65 per cent of voters now say they want a change of government, up 8 points since the writ dropped.
• Both parties promise to fund the SkyTrain extension to Newton, the signature ask of re-elected Surrey Mayor Doug McCallum.
• Conservatives believe they can win nine of ten Surrey ridings. They won six there in 2024.
• The Writ projection, updated Oct. 21, gives the Conservatives a 51-40 seat edge.

The B.C. Election 2026 Comes Down to Surrey

Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson spent Tuesday touring southern Vancouver Island, stopping in Juan de Fuca-Malahat, Cowichan Valley, and Saanich North and the Islands. NDP leader David Eby spent the same day defending seat-rich Surrey. Both itineraries tell the same story: this campaign will be won or lost in the suburbs south of the Fraser River.

Surrey holds ten of the province’s 93 seats, and Conservative strategist Angelo Isidorou did not mince words: “If you win Surrey, you win the whole election.” His party believes it can take nine of the ten Surrey ridings on Saturday after winning six of them in 2024.

Related: Alberta Referendum Results 2026: Three Quarters Vote to Stay as Smith Rules Out Another Separation Vote

Both Parties Promise SkyTrain to Newton

The price of admission in Surrey is the SkyTrain extension to Newton. Mayor Doug McCallum, re-elected to a fifth term on Oct. 17, has made the line his defining promise, and both Eby and Doerkson have now committed to funding it.

For commuters who have waited years for rapid transit to reach Surrey’s southern neighbourhoods, the duelling pledges are welcome. The question in the B.C. Election 2026 is which leader voters actually trust to build it.

What the Polls Say in the B.C. Election 2026

The Angus Reid poll, conducted Oct. 15 to 19 with 795 respondents, puts the Conservatives at 46 per cent and the NDP at 43. That is a three-point gap in the B.C. Election 2026, a race where every point will matter on Saturday.

The Innovative Research Group poll released Tuesday tells a similar story at 43-38, with the Greens at 12 per cent. But the number that should keep the NDP war room awake is not the horserace figure. It is this: 65 per cent of voters say they want a change of government, up 8 points since the election was called.

Innovative’s Greg Lyle called the figure “the kiss of death” for David Eby, saying it is worse than anything Christy Clark faced on her worst day. When a pollster uses language like that about an incumbent premier four days from voting day, pay attention.

One more detail worth noting: the Conservatives are the most favoured party among Punjabi and Chinese speakers, a trend that matters enormously in swing ridings like Surrey-Guildford and Richmond-Steveston.

Advance Voting by the Numbers

Here is where the B.C. Election 2026 stands as advance voting closes. Advance polls shut tonight at 8 p.m., and about 571,000 ballots were cast in the first four days, down roughly 4 per cent from 2024. That works out to about 15 per cent of registered voters, solid but not spectacular.

Election day is Saturday, with polls open from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. PT. Voters will elect 93 MLAs, and 47 seats are needed for a majority. Four days remain in the B.C. Election 2026, and Surrey is where it will be decided.

Maplestime will provide updates from the B.C. Election 2026 as results are announced on Oct. 24.

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Does Surrey really decide every B.C. election, or is this the year the Island and the Interior finally get their say? Tell us in the comments. And share this with every British Columbian still making up their mind before Saturday.