Toronto politics news — a new Toronto Mayoral Poll has the city’s October election shaping up as a genuine two-person race, with incumbent Olivia Chow at 38.1 per cent and challenger Brad Bradford at 31.4 per cent — a 6.7-point gap that is a lot tighter than City Hall is used to seeing.
By Maplestime News Desk | Sources: Towhey (Substack), Mainstreet Research poll report | Last updated: September 19, 2026
Key Takeaways
- The Toronto Mayoral Poll, conducted by Mainstreet Research from September 14 to 17 among 1,000 eligible Toronto voters, puts Olivia Chow at 38.1% and Brad Bradford at 31.4%.
- Rob Richardson (10%), Parthi Kandavel (9.8%) and Anthony Furey (8.2%) trail well behind the two frontrunners.
- Crime and public safety is the runaway top issue: 82.6% of voters rank it as their number one concern.
- Among the 18% of voters who say they’ve had a change of heart during the campaign, Chow leads Bradford 34.5% to 24.7%.
- The poll carries a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Toronto Mayoral Poll: The Topline Numbers
Here is what the numbers say, straight up. In this Toronto Mayoral Poll, decided voters break 38.1 per cent for Chow, 31.4 per cent for Bradford, 10 per cent for Richardson, 9.8 per cent for Kandavel and 8.2 per cent for Furey. That leaves the rest scattered or undecided — and with the vote set for October, there is still time for those numbers to move.
What jumps out is how consolidated the race has become. The top two candidates soak up nearly seven in ten decided voters, while the other three names on the list are all stuck in single digits or just barely above. For Richardson, Kandavel and Furey, the math is brutal: they are not just behind, they are behind by a margin that would require a collapse from one of the frontrunners to matter.
For Chow, the headline is decent but not comfortable. Leading is leading, but 38.1 per cent for an incumbent mayor is not the kind of number that lets a campaign breathe easy. Bradford, a city councillor who has spent months positioning himself as the change candidate, is close enough that one bad week for the incumbent — or one great debate moment — could flip the story of this race overnight.
Crime and Public Safety Is the Whole Ballot
If there is one number in this poll that should worry every campaign war room, it is 82.6 per cent. That is the share of voters who rank crime and public safety as their top concern. More than eight in ten. Nothing else on the ballot comes close to that kind of salience.
This is the lens through which Toronto will vote in October. Transit, housing, taxes — all of it matters, but the candidate who convinces voters they will make the city feel safer has the inside track. Both frontrunners know it, and expect the final weeks of the campaign to be fought almost entirely on this ground.
The “Change of Heart” Voters
The Toronto Mayoral Poll also dug into a fascinating slice of the electorate: the 18 per cent of voters who say they have changed their minds during the campaign. Among these “change of heart” voters, Chow takes 34.5 per cent to Bradford’s 24.7 per cent.
Read that carefully. The voters who are actually moving are breaking for the incumbent, not the challenger. That is the opposite of what you would expect in a “time for a change” election, and it suggests Bradford’s momentum has a ceiling he has not cracked yet. For Chow’s team, it is evidence that when voters take a second look, they are coming home. For Bradford’s team, it is a warning: persuasion is not the same as momentum.
What Happens Next
A quick note of caution, because polls deserve it: this is one survey, reported secondhand, with a ±3.1-point margin of error. The gap between Chow and Bradford (6.7 points) is bigger than the margin, so the lead is real — but single polls are snapshots, not predictions. The next Toronto Mayoral Poll will tell us whether this tightening is a trend or a blip.
What is not in doubt is the shape of the race: two frontrunners, one dominant issue, and an October vote that will be decided by who owns the public safety conversation. Everything else is noise.
Maplestime will provide updates as this story develops.
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