Alberta politics news — Just months ago, Danielle Smith’s UCP was riding the longest political honeymoon since the Ralph Klein era; now a new poll has the UCP deadlocked with the NDP at 41%, and Calgary — the province’s bellwether — has flipped against them.
By Maplestime News Desk | Calgary, Alberta | September 26, 2026
Sources: Peckford42, Cole’s Notes | Last updated: September 26, 2026
Key Takeaways
- A Janet Brown Opinion Research poll for CBC News, published Sept. 25, 2026, has Alberta UCP and NDP tied at 41% each.
- UCP support has dropped roughly 10 points in Calgary since spring, with the NDP now leading by 8 points in Calgary and 7 in Edmonton.
- Pollster Janet Brown attributes the slide to the referendum squeeze: separatists wanted Smith to back independence, while federalists resent the question existing at all.
- The poll lands less than two weeks after the Alberta NDP flipped Calgary-Shaw in a by-election that was expected to stay UCP.
- Data scientist John Santos says Smith is “getting hit by traffic on both sides of the road” between moderate conservatives and her populist base.
Alberta UCP and NDP Now Tied at 41 Percent
The numbers are stark. Back in the spring, pollster Janet Brown said Danielle Smith’s government enjoyed the longest honeymoon since the Ralph Klein era. That era is over. The new Janet Brown Opinion Research poll for CBC News, published Friday, September 25, 2026, puts the UCP and NDP in a dead heat at 41% apiece, per Peckford42.
The regional breakdown is worse for Smith. UCP support has dropped about 10 points in Calgary since spring, and the NDP now leads by 8 points in Calgary and 7 in Edmonton. Lose Calgary and Edmonton, and the electoral map starts looking very different.
The Referendum Squeeze
Brown attributes the slide to the referendum question hanging over the province — a no-win position for the premier. “I think the UCP is having a struggle navigating this difficult situation that we’re in right now,” she said, per Cole’s Notes. “Having a controversial referendum, the premier taking one position on the referendum [and] also trying to advocate for the nine other questions.”
The party is bleeding on both flanks: separatists who wanted Smith to fully back independence, and federalists who are frustrated the question exists at all.
Calgary-Shaw Was the Warning Shot
The poll arrives less than two weeks after the Alberta NDP flipped Calgary-Shaw in a by-election that was widely expected to stay UCP. Now the polling confirms it wasn’t a fluke — it was the canary in the coal mine.
Data scientist John Santos summed up Smith’s bind in Peckford42: “She’s trying to walk the middle of the road, between the moderate, business conservatives and the far-right populist base that’s still angry over COVID restrictions. And she’s getting hit by traffic on both sides of the road.”
Related: Alberta Referendum 2026
Maplestime will provide updates on the Alberta UCP-NDP polling race as announcements are made.
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Is Danielle Smith’s middle-of-the-road strategy doomed, or can the UCP win back Calgary before the next election? Tell us in the comments. And share this with every Canadian watching Alberta politics.
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