Canadian politics news — British Columbians vote today, and the final poll of the campaign has Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson premier-in-waiting in the eyes of nearly half of likely voters.
By Maplestime Politics Desk | British Columbia | October 24, 2026
Sources: Research Co., Ipsos | Last updated: October 24, 2026
Key Takeaways
- Research Co. puts the BC Conservatives at 44% of decided voters, ahead of the BC NDP at 40%, with the BC Greens at 10%.
- 47% of likely voters now call Lorne Doerkson premier-in-waiting, up 5 points since mid-October.
- Doerkson leads Premier David Eby on approval, 48% to 44%, while the two leaders tie 34% to 34% as best premier.
- A separate Ipsos poll also puts the Conservatives ahead, 44% to 39%, with 15% of voters saying they could still change their minds.
- British Columbians elect 93 MLAs today in the snap election called by Premier David Eby.
The last numbers before polling day point in one direction. Research Co. released its final survey on October 23, 2026, after interviewing 802 likely voters between October 21 and 23, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points. Undecided voters have fallen to 10%, down from 15% earlier in the campaign, which leaves very little room left for a late swing.
That is the context for the headline finding: 47% of likely voters call Doerkson premier-in-waiting. It is a label voters give, not a title anyone has won yet, but it tells you where the momentum sits on the morning ballots open.
Doerkson premier-in-waiting Leads a Tight Race
On decided voters, the Research Co. numbers are Conservatives 44%, NDP 40%, Greens 10%, OneBC 2% and CentreBC 2%. A four point lead is close, and with a margin of error of 3.5 points it is not a blowout. What makes it notable is the second poll pointing the same way. Ipsos, working with Global BC, surveyed voters October 20 to 22 and released its results October 23 as well: Conservatives 44%, NDP 39%, Greens 13%. In that survey, 18% were undecided or had no preference, and 15% said they could still change their minds.
Two pollsters, two different samples, the same four or five point Conservative edge. That is why the Doerkson premier-in-waiting framing has stuck. Voters are not just parking a protest vote. Nearly half of them now see the Conservative leader as the next premier in waiting.
Where the Conservatives Lead, and Where They Do Not
The regional breakdown explains the provincewide lead. The Conservatives are ahead in the Fraser Valley at 58%, in Northern B.C. at 51%, in Southern B.C. at 48% and in Metro Vancouver at 45% to 41%. The NDP leads in only one region: Vancouver Island, at 46%.
Metro Vancouver matters most here. It is the biggest battleground in the province, and a four point Conservative lead there, if it holds through counting tonight, is what turns a polling lead into seats. Vancouver Island alone cannot carry a provincewide comeback. If Metro Vancouver breaks this way, the Doerkson premier-in-waiting label will have earned its keep.
Eby Slips as Doerkson premier-in-waiting Gains Ground
The leadership numbers are just as stark. Eby and Doerkson are tied 34% to 34% when voters are asked who would make the best premier. But on approval, Eby has fallen to 44%, down 5 points, which puts him behind Doerkson at 48% and Green leader Emily Lowan at 46%.
That is a difficult combination for an incumbent premier in a snap election he called himself: tied on the best premier question, trailing on approval, and trailing on the ballot. Research Co. president Mario Canseco summed up the voter retention picture this way: “In the final week of the campaign, the BC Conservatives are keeping 87% of their voters from the 2024 provincial election. The retention rate is lower for the BC NDP at 78% and for the BC Greens at 61%.”
Retention is the quiet story of this campaign. A party that holds 87% of its previous voters while its opponent holds 78% does not need a surge. It just needs election day to look like the last week of polling. The numbers also explain why Doerkson premier-in-waiting is no longer just a pundit phrase. If that holds, Doerkson premier-in-waiting becomes Doerkson premier, full stop.
What Voters Say Matters Most
The top issue in the Research Co. survey is the economy and jobs, named by 28% of likely voters. Housing, poverty and homelessness follow at 23%, and health care at 20%. Those three issues account for more than seven in ten voters, which means tonight is less a referendum on one policy than a verdict on who voters trust with the basics: a job, a home and a doctor.
Polls do not vote, and 15% of Ipsos respondents saying they could still change their minds is a reminder that ballots, not surveys, decide this. But on the final numbers available, British Columbia heads to the polls with Doerkson premier-in-waiting in the public mind and the Conservatives holding a narrow but consistent lead.
Results will start coming in tonight, and 93 seats are on the line. Watch Metro Vancouver first. If the Conservative lead there survives contact with real ballots, the rest of the map may follow. Either way, the Doerkson premier-in-waiting question gets its answer tonight.
Maplestime will provide updates from the B.C. election as announcements are made.
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Do you think British Columbians are ready to hand the province to Doerkson, or will Eby pull off one more comeback tonight? Tell us in the comments. And share this with every Canadian watching the B.C. election today.
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